Thoughts of The Week #58 (22 Mar 2020)

Thoughts of the Week is a review of the most interesting thoughts I encountered on Twitter and on other mediums during the last week. It is free, but if you like it, you can support me on Patreon.

1/5: Forecasting

“When you put on your seat belt you aren’t «forecasting» a crash. When you lock your house you aren’t forecasting theft.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (link) 

Unfortunately, too many people reacted to the pandemic as “no need to wear the seatbelts now, if we’re going to crash, I’ll wear them just before the impact.”

Also,

“You don’t take decisions based on what is *likely* to work […], but based on the systemic costs of the error.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb (link)

This is a crucial point, understood by everyone regardless of their degree unless they identify with a profession where it’s more risky to sound wrong often than to be right when it matters.

The reason we are risk-averse is not because of a “bias” but because false negatives (not reacting to a threat) are much more expensive than false positives (overreacting).

How much would it have cost us to block a few planes in early January? Wayyyy less than how much the current crisis is costing us. Even if it materialized in 1% of cases only.

The surest way to spot an idiot, is to look for someone who doesn’t want to look like an idiot.

2/5: Overreaction

“If you don’t feel like you acted too early, you acted too late.” – Taylor Pearson (link)

This goes across the lines of “[as a manager,] you didn’t communicate a message until it feels like you overcommunicated it.” (I don’t remember who said it).

3/5: Opportunities

“Wild theory: Many will be forced to work from home over the summer. Employers will discover that productivity is improved and costs are reduced. This will lead to a paradigm shift that will emancipate white collar workers from offices across the world and change work forever.” – Gurwinder (link)

Interesting opportunity.

Talking about covid-opportunities, When companies have to temporarily close operations due to force majeure, it is best practice to use the downtime to train employees, so that they’ll be more productive later.

Singapore is paying freelancers who lost work due to the virus to attend courses to upgrade their skills (link).

To answer the inevitable question, “with what money?”: Singapore is using the same funds that other governments are also giving to their own citizens; the only difference, is that Singapore is using it to incentivize them to do something which will be useful for them, for their families and for their country.

4/5: Waiting

“Waiting for more data is not the way to approach complex, dynamic problems.” – Harry Crane (link)

…and especially problems where the risks of being late or of being wrong are catastrophic.

5/5: Legibility

“Based on this video [link], what about a design for a two part Coronavirus handwash? One part would be dyed and you would wash till hands covered in dye like below. The second part would remove the dye. Then everyone would be able to wash to a safe level without thinking.” – David Galbraith (link)

Abstracting a general principle from the problem at hand: skills are learned when feedback is visible.

Most people on the autistic spectrum have trouble learning social interactions because the feedback a normal person would get out of it is illegible to them (link).

In general, if you have trouble learning (or teaching) something, the answer is: make feedback legible.

My own essays of the week

I wrote a few twitter threads:

• We find a treatment, now what? (link)
• When do lockdowns work and how much? (link)
• Cargo cults and the pandemic (link)
• Getting home isolation right (link)

…
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(Here is my general disclaimer.)

The order of the thoughts only represents the order in which I encountered them, and does not imply any sort of prioritization. Quotes are edited for punctuation and grammar. Eventual formatting is mine. Also text outside of italicized quotation marks is mine. The inclusion of quotes does not imply my endorsement; merely, that they gave me food for thought. I did not optimize this review for clarity, but for its ability to spark thoughts in the reader.

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(Here is my general disclaimer.)

The order of the thoughts only represents the order in which I encountered them, and does not imply any sort of prioritization. Quotes are edited for punctuation and grammar. Eventual formatting is mine. Also text outside of italicized quotation marks is mine. The inclusion of quotes does not imply my endorsement; merely, that they gave me food for thought. I did not optimize this review for clarity, but for its ability to spark thoughts in the reader.