Ergodicity in Career Decisions: Which Risks Are Worth Taking

"Take risks early in your career" is common advice. But not all risks are equal. Some career moves are reversible experiments; others can permanently damage your trajectory.

Ergodicity helps distinguish between them.

Ergodic vs non-ergodic career moves

Ergodic career risks (recoverable)

These risks have outcomes you can recover from:

• Changing companies: If it doesn't work out, you can change again
• Trying a new role: You can return to your previous function
• Starting a side project: The downside is lost time, not lost career
• Negotiating salary: The worst case is "no", and you keep your current offer
• Speaking up in meetings: One bad contribution doesn't end careers

With these moves, bad outcomes don't prevent you from trying again. Over time, your results converge toward the expected value.

Non-ergodic career risks (potentially irreversible)

These risks can cause lasting damage:

• Burning bridges: Relationships destroyed rarely rebuild
• Reputation damage: Public failures can follow you for years
• Industry blacklisting: Some mistakes get you banned from the field
• Legal or ethical violations: Permanent stains on your record
• Health sacrifice: Burnout and stress-related illness don't fully reverse

With these moves, a single bad outcome can permanently alter your trajectory. The "expected value" is meaningless if one bad roll ends the game.

The question isn't "what's the expected outcome?" but "can I recover from the worst outcome?" If not, the expected value calculation is irrelevant.ShareCopy

Applying the framework

Startup decisions

Ergodic: Joining a startup as an employee

• Worst case: The startup fails, you job hunt for a few months
• You can try again with another startup or return to corporate

Non-ergodic: Putting your life savings into your own startup

• Worst case: Financial ruin, years of debt, relationship damage
• The "expected value" of startups is positive, but most founders experience the median (failure)

Strategy: Take calculated startup risks where the downside is time and learning, not financial ruin.

Speaking and visibility

Ergodic: Giving talks at industry events

• Worst case: One talk goes poorly, you learn and improve
• The audience forgets; you get another chance

Non-ergodic: Making public statements that could be career-ending

• Worst case: Screenshots live forever, fireable offenses get documented
• Even if "most people" survive such statements, you only need to be wrong once

Strategy: Build visibility gradually through recoverable actions.

Relationship management

Ergodic: Occasional professional disagreements

• Worst case: Temporary tension, then resolution
• Healthy conflict often strengthens relationships

Non-ergodic: Burning bridges when leaving

• Worst case: That person becomes your future boss, investor, or client
• Industries are smaller than they seem

Strategy: Always leave doors open, even when frustrated.

The compound effect of small risks

Remember the two skiers? A 0.1% daily risk seems negligible, but over a 40-year career, it becomes near-certain.

The same applies to career risks:

Daily Risk	After 1 Year	After 10 Years	After 40 Years
0.01%	96.4% safe	69.4% safe	23.2% safe
0.1%	69.4% safe	2.6% safe	~0% safe
1%	2.6% safe	~0% safe	~0% safe

Small, repeated exposure to non-ergodic risks eventually catches up with you.

What can be the best strategy for a one-off situation is often not the best strategy for a situation that repeats many times.ShareCopy

Practical guidelines

1. Maximize reversible experiments

Take lots of small, recoverable risks:

• Apply for stretch roles (worst case: rejection)
• Propose ambitious projects (worst case: no)
• Network aggressively (worst case: awkward conversations)

2. Minimize irreversible exposure

Protect against catastrophic outcomes:

• Never sacrifice your health for short-term performance
• Maintain ethical standards even under pressure
• Keep relationships professional even when emotions run high
• Build financial runway to avoid desperation moves

3. Build ergodicity buffers

Create systems that make you more resilient:

• Emergency fund = freedom to walk away from toxic situations
• Strong network = recovery options after setbacks
• Diverse skills = multiple career paths if one closes
• Clean reputation = benefit of the doubt in ambiguous situations

Learn more

• Ergodicity vs Expected Value - the core concept
• Ergodicity in Investing - the same framework for money decisions
• Ergodicity and Insurance - why paying for protection is rational
• Ergodicity Economics - academic foundations
• My book on Ergodicity - practical frameworks for any domain

The key career insight: over a 40-year career, you'll face hundreds of decisions. Maximize reversible experiments while protecting against irreversible damage. The goal isn't to never take risks, but to stay in the game long enough for your bets to pay off.ShareCopy