The most important question to stop the coronavirus

The situation is dire. More people died in a few weeks than in the full SARS epidemic, and China quarantined more citizens than those of the US or of the EU. It’s not “another flu”.

The virus is hard to stop. It’s airborne and its transmission begins with asymptomatic cases. Screenings are not enough, quarantines are needed.

The virus is hard to detect. Some tests have a 30% false positive rate (!). Others are less unprecise, but still unreliable. Screenings are not enough, quarantines are needed.

The virus kills, more than we know. People take weeks to die, so the mortality rates should be computed as “deaths today divided by cases two weeks ago”. The current number of 2% has been obtained by dividing deaths today by cases today.

The virus kills, everyone. So far it killed mostly old people, but this is likely to be due to lag again: young people take longer to die.

The virus will kill more. As China’s healthcare system will get overwhelmed, expect less individual care thus more deaths – including people who die of unrelated illnesses, because they couldn’t get to overcrowded hospitals.

But not all is lost

We are the most resourceful species on the planet. We can beat the Coronavirus. But doing so will require taking action and answering questions we might not be comfortable with. The most important one:

What will my country, my state, my city, my neighborhood do differently than China to prevent the spread of the virus? Many countries already closed their (air) borders with China, but did it too late, and got infected. What will the states and the cities of those countries do differently? Will they wait to be infected, or will they put travel restrictions in place before that? Will they at least stop all touristic travel? Will they at least limit public gatherings and conferences? 

Taking down this virus is possible, but it requires action now.

The virus is spread by asymptomatic carriers. Waiting for your city to be infected to take action is too late. Yes, quarantines, closing borders and curfews are inhumane. Yes, they have costs. It’s not an ideal solution, by far. But are they less inhumane and less costly than the mass quarantine going on in China right now? This is the only question that matters. 

We need to take FRACTAL ACTION right now. Most of the readers of this essay live in a country that contains cases of contagion, but not in a city that contains cases of contagion. I speak to them: what will you do?