The First-Order Thinking Bias

We often hear that humans are biased towards short-term thinking and negative experiences. But what if these aren't separate biases at all? What if they're both symptoms of a more fundamental limitation in how our brains work?

The real issue is simpler: our minds naturally favor what I call "first-order thinking" – looking at things exactly as we experience them right now, without considering how they might change over time.

Think about your first day at the gym. Your muscles ache, you're exhausted, and you don't see any immediate results. First-order thinking tells you: "This is terrible. Why would I ever do this again?" But wiser, "second-order thinking" recognizes that these initial costs will decrease while the benefits will grow. Your body will adapt, exercises will become easier, and you'll start seeing real improvements.

This difference between first- and second-order thinking is crucial. First-order thinking assumes the future will be just like the present – that today's costs and benefits will stay the same forever. Second-order thinking understands that things change over time, often in ways that completely transform the original equation.

Why are we stuck in first-order thinking? It's actually built into our biology. Our brains evolved to be intuitive rather than analytical. While humans can think analytically better than any other species, it takes real effort. It's mentally taxing and requires sustained focus – something our brains naturally resist.

This creates a trap: First-order thinking tells us something isn't worth the effort. Because we believe this, we don't bother analyzing it more deeply. Without deeper analysis, we never discover the long-term benefits. And without experiencing these benefits, our first-order thinking never changes. It's a perfect circle that keeps us stuck.

This same pattern explains why we tend to focus on negative experiences. We use our immediate reactions as a proxy for future value, forgetting that this relationship often changes dramatically over time. Just as muscles need stress to grow stronger, many valuable things in life require pushing through initial discomfort to reach lasting benefits.

Understanding this pattern gives us a powerful tool: when you notice yourself dismissing something based on immediate results, pause and consider how the situation might evolve over time. Sometimes the best opportunities are hidden behind challenging beginnings. Of course, the doing the above won't be sufficient to help you change behavior; but it will help to know that our instincts are not reliable in contexts dominated by second-order effects and, therefore, we should consider acting even if our first-order emotions tell us otherwise.