Skiing
Three quick games to help you understand the concept of ergodicity.
Game 1: Single Player
You're a skier. You can participate in up to 10 races.
In each race, you have a 20% chance of winning, but also a 20% chance of getting injured. If you get injured, you can't participate in any more races.
How many races do you expect to win?
Races: 0/10
Wins: 0
Status: Healthy
Game 2: Alice vs Bob
Alice and Bob are both skiers. They can participate, together with other skiers, in a championship consisting of 10 races.
Alice takes more risks, so she has a 20% chance of winning each race, but also a 10% chance of getting injured.
Bob takes fewer risks, so he has a 15% chance of winning each race, but also a 1% chance of getting injured.
Who do you think will win more races?
Races:
0/10
Alice
Wins: 0
Healthy
Bob
Wins: 0
Healthy
Keep playing until you complete 10 races
Game 3: Population of Skiers
Now we have 100 skiers: 50 Alices and 50 Bobs.
Each Alice has a 20% chance of winning and a 10% chance of injury per race, and each Bob has a 15% chance of winning and a 1% chance of injury per race.
Play the game for at least 20, noticing how Alices are likely to win more races at the beginning but fewer as the game progresses. So, it would be a mistake to think that Alice's strategy is better just because it grows faster at the beginning.
Races: 0
Alices
Wins: 0 (average per skier: 0.00)
Injury status: (0% injured)
Bobs
Wins: 0 (average per skier: 0.00)
Injury status: (0% injured)
Ergodicity
How irreversible outcomes affect long-term performance in work, investing, relationships, sport, and beyond
Some reviews
"One of the most important books I’ve read, period. It’s short, articulate, and expansive on a singular subject matter — ergodicity, which is really the key ingredient to success in life, marriage, business, family, happiness, health, etc."
Blake Janover
CEO, Janover Inc.
"One of the most important books for everyone to read. Ergodicity should be taught in school and it should be a common metric in businesses that leaders pay attention to and are deliberate about."
Matt Cannon
"A fascinating book […] Once I started, I couldn’t put it down […] the math is minimal, and Luca treats the subject well. I wish I had read it two years earlier"
Robert Matthews
VP of Engineering, Equifax
"Profoundly insightful [...] If you are someone who often needs to make decisions under uncertainty and using incomplete information (which I think applies to most of us), then Ergodicity is a must-read."
Dev Ashish
StableInvestor Founder
"Brilliant. Must read."
N. S. Ramnath
Journalist & Author
"A great book for those who quickly want to familiarize themselves with the concept of ergodicity. The author goes to great lengths explaining the concept in easily understandable terms. Highly recommended!"
Auke Hunneman
BI Norwegian Business School