try{let e="undefined"!=typeof window?window:"undefined"!=typeof global?global:"undefined"!=typeof globalThis?globalThis:"undefined"!=typeof self?self:{},s=(new e.Error).stack;s&&(e._sentryDebugIds=e._sentryDebugIds||{},e._sentryDebugIds[s]="0bc1d1e7-5c52-46aa-b0fe-a0ad2414b126",e._sentryDebugIdIdentifier="sentry-dbid-0bc1d1e7-5c52-46aa-b0fe-a0ad2414b126")}catch(e){}(self.webpackChunk_N_E=self.webpackChunk_N_E||[]).push([[2803],{69271:(e,s,t)=>{Promise.resolve().then(t.bind(t,87153))},87153:(e,s,t)=>{"use strict";t.r(s),t.d(s,{default:()=>h});var i=t(84573),n=t(31057),a=t(87039),r=t(5406),o=t(24716),l=t.n(o),c=t(78927),d=t(66601);function h(){let[e,s]=(0,d.useState)(!0),[t,o]=(0,d.useState)(0),h=c.b.find(e=>"ergodicity"===e.slug);return(0,i.jsxs)("div",{className:"max-w-2xl mx-auto flex flex-col gap-4",children:[(0,i.jsxs)("div",{className:"flex flex-col gap-2 mb-4 text-center",children:[(0,i.jsx)("h1",{children:"Russian Roulette"}),(0,i.jsxs)("p",{className:"text-sm text-gray-500 mx-auto max-w-[80%]",children:["A quick game to help you understand the concept of"," ",(0,i.jsx)(l(),{href:"/books/ergodicity",children:"ergodicity"}),"."]})]}),(0,i.jsx)("p",{children:"The game is simple. You are given a revolver with 6 chambers. Only one of them contains a bullet, but you do not know which one. If you pull the trigger and survive, you gain $6000."}),(0,i.jsx)("p",{children:"The expected outcome of this game is $5000. That's because you have a 5/6 chance of winning $6000. But what's the outcome of playing it multiple times?"}),(0,i.jsx)("p",{children:"Click the button below to find out."}),(0,i.jsxs)(a.a,{orientation:"vertical",className:"w-full my-4",children:[(0,i.jsxs)("div",{className:"flex flex-row gap-2",children:[(0,i.jsx)(r.T,{color:"primary",onPress:function(){e&&(t>0&&Math.random()<1/6?s(!1):o(t+6e3))},children:"Pull the trigger"}),!e&&(0,i.jsx)(r.T,{color:"primary",variant:"faded",onPress:function(){s(!0),o(0)},disabled:0===t,className:"ml-4",children:"Reset"})]}),(0,i.jsx)("div",{children:(0,i.jsx)("span",{children:e?"You have $".concat(t,"."):"You died."})}),e&&(0,i.jsx)("span",{className:"italic text-sm",children:"Keep pressing to see what happens!"})]}),!e&&t>0&&(0,i.jsxs)(i.Fragment,{children:[(0,i.jsx)("p",{children:"This is interesting! In the short term, the expected outcome of playing is $5000, but in the long term, it is $0 (you're dead)."}),(0,i.jsxs)("p",{className:"font-semibold",children:["The general rule is that"," ",(0,i.jsx)("b",{children:"you can evaluate a strategy by relying on averages only if there are no irreversible losses."})]}),(0,i.jsx)("p",{children:"This is the core principle at the heart of ergodicity and has important implications for investors and entrepreneurs, but also for everyone caring about the long-term success of their career or personal lives."}),(0,i.jsxs)("p",{className:"italic",children:["To learn more about it, you might be interested in my book"," ",(0,i.jsx)(l(),{href:"/books/ergodicity",children:"ergodicity"}),"."]}),h&&(0,i.jsx)(n.j,{book:h})]})]})}}},e=>{var s=s=>e(e.s=s);e.O(0,[915,8206,4445,5406,5507,224,3477,7763,2041,8927,1057,1004,6306,7358],()=>s(69271)),_N_E=e.O()}]);